Peak Oil Basics

What is Peak Oil?

The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area – from a single oilfield, to a region or country, or more commonly the total global oil output, recognizing oil is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion.

Generally, most discussions refer to peak oil in the context of the total global oil output, so the term usually refers to the point in time when oil production will be (or was) at its peak for the world as a whole.

The US has already had its domestic oil production peak event in 1970 (as was accurately predicted by Hubbert in 1956 based on straighforward analysis of reserves, production volumes and consumption rates).

Essentially global peak oil is the result of an individual field, country or region hitting their own peaks, which they always do (many already have).

When will Peak Oil occur?

The consensus ranges between 2006 i.e it has already happened to 2020, the IEA’s ( International Energy Authority) estimate in early 2009.

Current production figures indicated the approx 84 million barrels per day of oil field derived oil (i.e. excluding agricultural methanol) produced during 2007-2008 was the peak production there ever will be. (The US used  approx. 24 million barrels per day before the 2008 crash.)

Note: Whilst the IEA says peak oil won’t arrive until circa 2020 their forecast for 2009 is for total oil production to fall by 6.7%, which suggests peak oil has already occurred.

You can Google “peak oil” and find a whole range of sites of the subject, including:

• www.peakoil.net – operated by ASPO: The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

• www.theoildrum.com

• www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net – operated by Matt Simmons a reknowned commentator

• www.321energy.com – see a good energy summary at http://321energy.com/editorials/deruijter/deruijter021109.html

So What’s The Big Deal With Peak Oil?

The key point to understand with peak oil is that modern, western civilization is almost completely dependent on oil in 2 ways:

1. The cheap, portable and high density energy provided by oil e.g. for transportation, heating and power generation

and

2. It’s value as a raw material (e.g. for plastics, lubricants, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals and a myriad of other products).

Fighting Over A Declining Resource

Whereas oil availability will soon start declining, world population and consumption is increasing. This means the impact of a reduction in oil availability will be greater, because more people will be competing for their share of a dwindling resource.

Historically, this situation has always led to wars, for example Iraq.

Ironically, as the availability of oil declines, the ability of nations to wage wars over it will progressively reduce (modern warfare is very oil intensive). Also, as oil supplies continue to reduce, our ability to repair and rebuild after war will diminish (take a look at an average construction site to see how dependent it is on oil).

Because oil is such a valuable and essential material in industrial society, shortages will have a massive impact on the economy and society as a whole. Almost everything we accept as normal is dependent upon cheap and freely available oil. When the oil stops, society as it is currently set up stops.

Oil is ridiculously cheap given its value to society and yet we waste it so profligately.

Suggested Actions:

Refer to actions you can take, briefly:

• Peak oil and the resultant “energy descent” is likely to arrive soon now, but don’t just take what’s here as gospel, do your own research and find out for yourself what the impact of peak oil will be.

• Plan for how you can cope with less fuel, or very expensive fuel. If you have to drive a long to get anywhere from where you live, life could get very dificult when oil gets scarce.

• Consider living in a location with a temperate climate and good water supplies and ideally where public transport is available, especially rail.

• Learn about growing your own food (modern agriculture is hugely dependent upon oil)

• Get healthy. Modern health care facilities are likely to become more basic.

• Learn about natural health and how to do without (or at least with less) pharmaceuticals because (a) they’re generally bad for you and (b) they have very oil dependent production processes.