Reality In 2009

At the start of 2009, there are almost as many different views of the current situation as there are people in the world, so which one is right and how is the future going to pan out?

Some commentators argue that a collapse of industrial civilization, as we in the privileged western world currently enjoy it, will inevitably follow the economic collapse. Others say that if we take the right steps to restore economic growth everything will get back to normal, but nobody really knows for sure.

To some degree of course, the future is always changeable, but there are major possibilities that are now clearly visible and appear likely to happen.

A selection of possible future viewpoints are outlined here – some of these are not pleasant.

The Realities of Our Current Situation

Here’s my view of the most likely scenarios and situations we’re dealing with on our planet.

These are not aligned to any political or religious agenda, they are merely a statement of reality.

Point 1 – Impacts of Over Population and Industrial Civilization

The impacts of over-population and our industrial civilization are destroying the natural resource base of our planet e.g. soil, forests, water, fisheries, species diversity etc.

This means that the planet’s ability to support the population sustainably is reducing every year.

Point 2 – Short Term Boost to Earth’s Carrying Capacity

We have artificially boosted the planet’s capability to support us on a temporary basis with inputs such as oil, which provides extra energy and man-made fertilizers to boost food production, at the expense of soil and environmental health and sustainability.

Once these short-term boosters are depleted (global oil production has most likely already peaked – see peak oil), the planet’s carrying capacity will fallback to a lower level. Note this capacity will be less than it was before industrial civilization began, because of the damage we have done to natural eco systems.

The obvious conclusion is that without an as yet unforeseen technology, or another form of intervention (e.g. divine or extra-terrestrial) the population will quickly fall from 6.5Billion to a much lower figure, perhaps 1 or 2 Billion.

Point 3 – The Limits To Economic Growth

Our current economic model is based on never-ending economic (and population) growth. As such is it clearly not viable in the longterm, because it is disconnected from the physical reality and constraints of the planet. Specifically, it takes no account of:

(a) the planet’s finite ability to provide resources – oil, gas and coal (energy to do industrial work, heat, transport etc), metals, timber (make things), food, soil, fisheries, water (things we need to survive) etc.

(b) the planet’s ability to absorb the various toxic wastes from our activities, without damaging the biological systems that support us.

Point 4 – The Illusion of Wealth

Ultimately all real wealth has to relate to something physical that the planet can provide. Numbers on a screen showing a bank balance have no direct ability to feed or shelter you. The numbers are a proxy for somebody doing or providing something.

However, when the numbers relate to financial instruments that are disconnected from physical reality such as:

• CDOs, mortgages that will never be paid back
• credit swaps, derivatives and other exotic financial instruments,
• inflated real estate values,

they can and demonstrably do total more than the physical resources can provide. Hence their value is theoretical can and does disappear “overnight”.

The US real estate bubble was clearly not sustainable, because the prices of houses were artificially inflated (e.g. by cheap credit and people house flipping) beyond their real worth.

The loans and prices were disconnected from people’s ability to pay for them and the system was bound to crash.

The bankers, valuers, real estate agents, mortgage brokers etc all knew this, but they were motivated by their ability to reap maximum short term profits and/or to inflate their personal bonuses.

Point 5 – How Physical Limits Triggered The Collapse

The 2008 economic collapse is one demonstration of what happens when Earth’s physical limits are reached.

One limit was on how many people could be sold houses at inflated prices, using mortgages they could never pay back, before the financial system built on top of this system collapsed.

Another crucial limit worth highlighting is the supply and thus price of oil, because oil is a crucial component in our civilization’s basic ability to do work, heat, transport people, make things.

Oil spiked in price primarily due to a (most likely permanent) limit on production capability aka “peak oil “, probably exacerbated by deliberate speculation. This broke our economic system, because the input costs for energy to carry on the normal activities of industrial civilization became too high.

Peak oil is worth a special mention because oil is such a crucial input to our civilization, both as an energy source and a raw material.

Note: An economic collapse has already occurred in areas of the world such as Africa, because our civilization works by taking resources from people in countries with less (military/political) power and distributing them to countries with more power. As a result their resource base and societal infrastructure are already depleted.

Point 6 – Financial Manipulation by A Global Elite

There is a global, shadow elite (often called the Illuminati) who manipulate the global, political and commercial agenda to further their own interests, which are primarily:

(a) to increase their personal wealth and power and

(b) to create a centralized world government.

Globalization has certainly been driven by this elite.

Some people postulate the crash is part of the elite’s agenda, because it creates a context in which people lose their personal wealth. In these circumstances people become willing/resigned to trade their personal freedom (”we need more international laws’, “we need more surveillance to catch terrorists”, “we need a central, global bank”, “globalization makes everybody richer”) for survival.

Also the “pump and dump” or “boom and bust” is a proven methodology the elite uses to trick people and companies into over-leveraging themselves. Then when the inevitable collapse following the boom occurs the elite can acquire assets at a fraction of their usual cost.

Point 6A

The 2008-2009 collapse may be a special case in that it is causing a deliberate downscaling of industrial activity. By doing this, the dwindling resource base of the planet will be conserved and viable for longer than it would have been at “full throttle”.

It may also avert some wars, which are very damaging to infrastructure. In a world of declining resources, it will become much more difficult to repair or rebuild damaged infrastructure

Others postulate the speed and depth of the collapse has even taken the elite by surprise.

Point 7 – Political Manipulation by A Global Elite

This elite has successfully manipulated the political agenda and placed its candidates in key positions of power i.e. government, finance, industry, military, religion etc for decades and possibly centuries.

They use a bait and switch tactic to persuade voters that the next change of government will deliver saner, more equitable policies, but they don’t. In fact the elite controls both sides of politics and the bait and switch is the trick that makes voters think they are getting a “change of government”. Instead the voters just get a different facade on the same agenda.

This explains how the same policies that favor the rich, the military-industrial complex and foster war and division are repeated again and again by different governments.

Point 8 – A Population That Is Asleep In A Dreamworld

Many people are “asleep at the wheel” and won’t open their eyes and minds to what is really going on, because:

• Either they are addicted to their wealth or lifestyle, even knowing it only comes at the expense of the greater population and sustainability
• Or they are too distracted coping with their difficult circumstances
• They are disabled by toxic food and pharmaceuticals. The apparent surface motive here is profits, but that may be a shield for the real objective of making people dysfunctional.
• They have deliberately been made fearful by religious and political dogma, brain-deadening TV and media propaganda.

A favorite tactic here is “the Muslim terrorists are coming to get you” . . . . even though just a few years ago these terrorists were on our side and we were providing them arms and military training!